Showing posts tagged google

Facebook is a binary stock

I don’t know if Facebook is overvalued right now, it seemed a stretch at $100Billion and has been “corrected”, but then Google used to trade at many times sales also. Cisco was once worth nearly 5 times that (that WAS overvalued). 

What is true (for sure), is that Facebook is a risky stock. But risky in both directions. Three years ago, the business had hardly any sales, it is now selling 3,700 million dollars per year and growing. It was a megatastic war chest of cash and a brand name that spits in the face of most other online properties. 

http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/screen-shot-2012-05-03-at-3-07-16-pm.png?w=640

So - some heads will roll at Facebook for the IPO fiasco and disclosure baloney, they’ll first be unfriended in the media and then blocked by Facebook, but their egos will be massaged with millions they made. And, the business will go on…

Facebook will or will not dominate social networks and related advertisements/ gaming and music for the next decade. If you think it will BUY, if you think it  won’t, SELL…take your pick

Facebook buys YouTube, why not?

So. The IHT has a wonderful article on Peter Thiel (founder PayPal, early shareholder Facebook). His life could have been different if he hadn’t failed to get a key legal position, instead he starts PayPal and the rest is billions of dollars of glorious history. His thinking is, people confuse capitalism with competition, sure there are overlaps but beating the other guy isn’t always best. Finding “creative monopolies” is what you should do. Not the Mr. Burns nuclear plant monopoly but creatively finding niches where you can prosper at least for a while, like Facebook has OR Pinterest will OR Google did. They never tried to kill their opposition, they just were more creative for long periods of time in growing new industries. 

Now. Google is poor at social networking. They really are. But they own YouTube which is growing and social. Still, they want to focus their efforts on Google +, a foolishness which will run its course soon. What they may want to do is to work on those platforms that still make a lot of money, and stretch them into  mobile and build on the world of opportunity that exists in local commerce and connected advertising. 

Then. They they could sell their assets that are really social networks that they will never have the DNA to grow and monetise properly. Say Facebook then buys YouTube for $10Billion+ in shares and cash, they get the video piece, they get the social network and they get the next generation and a super high valuation. Google gets out profitably and focuses on what they are good at. Why not?

Google’s real social network chance…YouTube

I have a son. I am particularly proud of him, he’s funny, good at sports and a bit of a geek. He loves Minecraft and other online games, he has now been online for a decade, since the nice Malaysian girl Anu showed him cBBC in 2002 at the break out room in my MBA school. It’s in his blood, this internet thing, he knows how to edit and upload videos and make connections with others in the Internetesphere (yes we monitor this). He reached “majority” recently (13) and now the fun will probably really begin…

His online habits made me think. We all joke about how Google+ is for Google employees, i.e. no one really uses it unless their bonus is connected to it. Strange given that numerous twitter conversations would be better held there, but resistance to change is always there, n’est pas. And Google plows zillions into making work and work it won’t (unless they buy Twitter, but that’s a different story).

But, Google sits on top of a beautiful and crazy social network already. It’s YouTube. Kids frequently feel freer there and if they aren’t the creative uploading types they can still subscribe and comment, basically connecting with those they like. 

My son has a channel, his most recent piece on YogVentures hit 7,500 views… Frankly he treasures a new subscriber 100 times more than a new Facebook friend! So, why doesn’t Google spend more time there, making that a more social network and the kids (who don’t care that Google is “evil”) can connect there, and grow up there, and their parents will be none the wiser and not in the picture. And, do you think people will leave their channel when they have worked to get their 100 subscribers and they can even earn pocket money…they’ll never leave…trust me…